Poll: Democrats Lead in 'Intensity' But Fall Short of House Takeover
By RICK MORAN --- Read PJ MEDIA
A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll casts a more realistic light on Democrats' chances. There is little doubt that Trump hatred is giving the Democrats an edge in voter intensity. But the numbers that would signal a blue wave just aren't there. And against all odds, the president's approval numbers are as high now as they have been at any time since he was inaugurated.
Bottom line: Democrats are angry and angry people vote. Unless the GOP has a "get out the vote" program that exceeds anything previously seen, they are going to be in trouble.
But history also holds a cautionary tale for Democrats. Parts of their coalition, especially the young, minorities, and single women, may tell pollsters they are all fired up to vote and then fail to show up on election day. This has happened more than once and may be one of the only things that will save the GOP from defeat.
The wild card is Trump himself, who, thanks to a booming economy, is enjoying his best approval numbers.
See --> TRUMP APPROVAL AT 50%...
Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 6, 2018. A total of 33 of the 100 seatswill be up for regular election. Click here for more information about special elections to fill vacancies in the 115th Congress.
Heading into the election, the Republican Party holds a 51-seat majority in the chamber. Democrats hold 47 seats, and the remaining two are held by independents who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party faces greater partisan risk in 2018, as they are defending 25 seats (two of which are held by independents), while eight seats up for election in 2018 are held by Republican incumbents by comparison. The Democratic Party must defend seats in 10 states that supported Donald Trump (R) over Hillary Clinton (D) in 2016.
As of March 2018, the Republican Party was in the majority, holding 237 seats to Democrats' 192 seats, with six seats being vacant. Click here for a listing of these vacant seats, which also includes links to Ballotpedia's coverage of the special elections which have been scheduled for U.S. House seats in 2018.
The Democratic Party is favored to gain seats in the chamber in 2018, as the party of a newly elected president has historically lost seats in Congress in the following midterm election. Since 1934, the party of a newly elected president has suffered an average loss of 23 seats in the House in the following midterm. The party of a newly elected president has gained seats in the House in the following midterm only twice since then; Democrats gained nine seats in 1934 following Franklin D. Roosevelt's first presidential election in 1932, and Republicans gained eight seats in 2002 following George W. Bush's election to the presidency in 2000. Due to this trend, more House seats that are currently held by Republican incumbents are expected to be in play than in a normal congressional election.